What a Leading Climate Scientist Has to Say

Provided by Peg SkorpinskiBerkeley climate researcher Inez Fung doesn't really like politics. She's a scientist. But over her distinguished career, she has regularly waded into political battles, like when she contributed to the IPCC work that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 and advised Massachusetts during its successful suit to force the EPA to count CO2 as pollution.

Next week, rather than go to Copenhagen, she will attend the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) annual conference, one of the biggest collections of Earth scientists in the world. Change.org spoke to her on Friday as she hurried to prepare.

Q: So what are you hoping for from the Copenhagen conference?

Inez Fung: What I'm hoping for I don't think will happen. I'm hoping for drastic reduction in emissions and I do not see that in the cards. So now what I'm hoping for is that they give a sense of urgency. To pretend we can do two degrees [conservative estimate for temperature rise] is a pretense. The greenhouse gases that are in the atmosphere have already committed us to over two degrees. The reason [temperatures have not risen] over two degrees is that we are counting on aerosols to offset. But aerosols are bad guys. They are pollution.

Q: Do you think that enough science is getting into the policy debate?

IF: Well, the science of climate change is based on very sound physics. What we are working to improve is the details. We love these little decimal places - is it 3.1, is it 3.5? But the big message has been around and it is very robust.

Q: So what you want is a renewed sense of urgency?

IF: What I really want to hear out of Copenhagen is: Are people working on solutions? In addition to the governmental agreements for emission reduction we need action. I don't need doctors standing around discussing whether I'm going to have another fever, I need doctors in the laboratory working for new cures.

Q: What one aspect should people who are not atmospheric chemists but who are very passionate about climate change focus on?

IF: Focus on long-term reductions, which are a generational thing. But in the meantime we can work on shorter-term solutions. Shorter-term solutions would involve working on methane. Say, the methane that is leaked out of landfills. It's economically stupid to let methane into the atmosphere. That would buy us some time while we work on the longer-term solutions.

Q: Because methane is a more effective greenhouse gas?

IF: Yes, but also methane has a shorter lifetime. So whatever you don't emit will not be there. Whereas with CO2 we are doing this post-facto thing. Reducing methane is an interim solution and it's economically advantageous.

Q: Over the past five years what have been the biggest advances in climate models?

IF: In the last five years we have started to look at regional climate change with confidence. I am not talking about San Francisco versus LA; I am talking about the Southwest versus the tropics.

Q: Why are you going to AGU instead of Copenhagen?

IF: Somebody has to be doing the laboratory work, thinking about the next "cure." Personally my strength is there, not in negotiation. I'm a scientist, [laughing] compromise is not easy for me.

Q: A lot of people have been talking about the so-called "scandal" at Hadley. Do you have any comments?

IF: I look at that as a royal distraction. You know, if you say "we don't like those guys" then junk that whole data set. You still have Jim Hansen's data set, the NASA data set, we have the NOAA data set, ice melting, and we have so many other measures. So if you don't like the British version, use the NASA version.

Q: Next week is going to be very busy for you at the AGU meeting. Will you also have your ear to Copenhagen every day?

IF: I will be listening to Copenhagen every day, but trying not to have my blood pressure rise. Hoping to stay calm.

Erik Vance is a freelance science writer. His work has appeared in the Chronicle of Higher Education, Nature, Scientific American, and the Utne Reader.

Comments (22)

  • Erik Vance
    Dec 11, 2009 @ 01:02PM PT
    Erik Vance

    Stay Tuned, Geekocrats, next week I will be reporting from the AGU Meeting in San Francisco.

  • Rev Bookburn
    Dec 11, 2009 @ 06:09PM PT
    Rev Bookburn

    Thank you. We should read what she has to say regularly.

  • CTYankee Aeon
    Dec 12, 2009 @ 10:24AM PT
    CTYankee Aeon

    The most significant aerosol in the atmosphere is {drum roll} salt -- NaCl, every time a wave breaks on a beach or a berg or simply whitecaps in the open ocean, a tiny particle of salt is added to the atmosphere.

    3.1 what, or 3.5 what???  I think Lord Kelvin said: "...the only thing left for physicists to do is to add a few more digits of precision to what we've learned about the universe..."  That was before the discoveries that made modern civilization possible.

    But she is a scientist that can only say things are heating up...  What's her opinion as to possible solutions?  Other than the obvious and useless advice "curb emissions" 

    objoke:
    Patient: Doctor, it hurts when I do this {raises arm}
    Doctor: Don't do that.

    There really wasn't much content in the rest.  "royal distraction" was a euphemism for what??? ^_^

    The data shows the relative impact for uncontrolled emissions of hydrocarbons, and this is certainly a good place to start.  It makes good economic sense, and it makes climate sense.  If every leaking propane tank in Mexico City was repaired, the owners wouls save millions of $$$ in lost fuel costs and supress the plume of elevated temperatures that allowed scientists to suspect the millions of leaking tanks were the culprit.

    Hey Erik,

    You seem like a reasonable voice, unlike others I'v tangled with.  How would you like to do an interview with a hard-boiled denier... (your's truly)?

    I mean, it's sort of unfolding anyway...  are you game?

  • Craig Nazor
    Dec 12, 2009 @ 03:01PM PT
    Craig Nazor

    Erik, this is a great interview. I just heard Dr. Gerald North, a physicist from Texas A&M give a great lecture at UT Austin on climate change last night, and he was saying essentially the same thing. It is very important to hear from the scientists who are actually doing the research.

  • Sustainable Action Day
    Dec 15, 2009 @ 05:59AM PT
    Sustainable Action Day

     

     

    Aloha or Hello,

    From the Founder of Sustainable Action Day weekly Worldwide initiative.

    My name is Zion Estes,

                We are preparing the launching of  A World-wide weekly initiative, called Sustainable Action Day.   We are based on the Big Island of Hawaii and we plan to launch next month January 2010.   Our goal is to drive an International campign for addressing real Sustainable Action at the local level. 

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    -

                           Sustainable Action Day Vision Mission Statement


    Sustainable Action Days objective is to promote research, communication networking, and high tech and sustainable education, through community and cultural events, with emphasis on self-sufficiency and ecologically sound sustainable development.


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     Please feel free to visit some of our web-sites and our partners web-sites.  Sustainable Action Day and Resilience Hawaii are brand new and only have a couple days of work into them.


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    Identify the highest quality of local sustainable infrastructure systems and resources
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     Renewable Energy - Sustainable power from solar, wind, biomass, and hydro.Affordable Shelter-Low cost, durable shelters for temporary, semi-permanent, and long-term housing.Purified Water - Purified, safe water via filtration, reverse osmosis, pasteurization, and treatment.Organic Locally Grown Food - Develop and cultivate our organic local agriculture and farming techniques.Heating, Lighting, Cooling - Lower our power consumption per house hold and save our local consumer money. Communication & Technology - Develop training in High tech education to accelerate our high-tech understanding so we can adapt to the technology age.
    Sanitation - Address samrter more efficient ways to deal with our trash problem.Create Sustainable Action Day TV series on the sustainable projects as they unfold and use this to re-energize the tourism economy for Hawaii.


    Check out some of our websites and capabilities along with local partners.

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    http://sustainableactionday.com/node/21

    http://www.amaraka.tv/home/

    http://resiliencehawaii.com/home/

    http://rocknrenew.com/BLOG/wordpress/

    http://www.trueoffsets.com/

    http://www.margaretwille.com/home/

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              We hope this Sustainable Action Day movement can catch on with everyone around the World.   Stay tuned for information and events on www.sustainableactionday.com  

    Please feel free to contact us with any questions or information.

    Again thank you for your consideration,...


    Aloha,


    Mahalo,


    Zion Estes

    Founder / President

    Sustainable Action Coalition

    Sustainable Action Day

    & AMARAKA TV

    To those who want to really be proactive and join us directly please email me at zion@sustainableactionday.

    Or Contact us by clicking the contact form link right below.  

    1. send us an email via the contact form, and

    Sign our petition here http://www.change.org/actions/view/sustainable_action_day

     

     

  • Jonathan M
    Jan 02, 2010 @ 06:28PM PT
    Jonathan M

    Of course she is saying all this to support the AGW theory, she is getting big bucks from the government to support there "global warming" idea.

    Why do they always ask climate scientist, why not ask people like Meteorologist? After all CO2 is part of atmospheric science. And weather is a big part for the climate to change! I know why, they don't agree with what you say!! Meteorologist study weather patterns all the time, its there job. So why wouldn't they know that this is just part of the earths cycles. Weather patterns change ALL THE TIME!! Warm and Cold. What makes climate any different?!?!

    WE DON'T CONTROL THE WEATHER!!!!

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 02, 2010 @ 10:12PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Jonathan - you show a lack of understanding about the way science is funded. Inez Fung gets paid mostly by UC Berkeley. If she produces high-quality peer-reviewed, published research articles on climate science regardless of what the conclusions are, then she might get a higher salary. She will also probably get more grants to help her do more research, but none of this money goes to her salary. Grant money might pay for graduate assistantships, or travel, or facility use, but all expenditures are looked at very closely and by the granting agency.

      There is a myth going around that somehow climatologists are getting rich off of government grants. The system just does not work this way. Climatologists get to do research with government grants. If that research is good enough to pass peer-review, get published, and then get accepted as a significant contribution to scientific knowledge by scientists from around the world, then the researcher might get paid more in salary, or be able to get a more prestigious position. The vast majority of researchers not employed by private industry get paid more money because they are better scientists, not because they support certain results.

      Climate is the study of 30 year averages (or longer) in weather patterns. Meteorologists attempt to forecast daily weather patterns. Meteorologists are much more likely to work for private industry and less likely to do research than climatologists.

      Life on earth has been having profound effects on the earth's atmosphere for over a billion years. Nothing has changed, except now it is humans that are making change happen. 

    • Reply to thread
  • Jonathan M
    Jan 02, 2010 @ 10:41PM PT
    Jonathan M

    I think you need to understand how the government works. Anything to make money they'll all over it. Our Founding Fathers would not put up with such crap like it is now.

    The peer-review process is fraud itself. climatologists are getting rich off of government grants is more than likely true. Because, as long as they can keep getting big money from the government they are going to keep asking for more just to support AGW! It's all about money! 

    Meteorologist do much more than just telling a weather forecast. A Meteorologist is a person who studies and analyzing weather patterns. Then why are some of the top Meteorologist disagree with this hole AGW deal. In fact over 20,000 Meteorologist with PHDs, signed a petition stating this scam. That's far more than who agree with it!

    Don't think that its not an inside job, craig!

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 03, 2010 @ 12:03AM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Most climatologists do not work for "the government," they work for universities. I have worked in universities most of my life - I know how universities work.

      If peer-review didn't work well, then all of the recent scientific and technological developments that you enjoy every day would have never happened. Your statement is also accusing all climatologists of being corrupt. That's a false statement.

      Do you have a link to the proof of your statement about "20,000 meteorologists with PhD's?" There are only about 20,000 working meteorologists in America, and many of those don't have PhD's. The largest employer of meteorologists is the National Weather Service, a government agency. The government employs few climatologists. 

      Meteorology and climatology are rather different disciplines. If I wanted to know the weather forecast for tomorrow, I would consult a meteorologist. If I wanted to know about long-term weather patterns, I would consult a climatologist.

      Science is not an "inside job." It is the search for the truth about how the world works.

    • Reply to thread
  • Jonathan M
    Jan 03, 2010 @ 04:49PM PT
    Jonathan M

    I sure do have a link: http://www.petitionproject.org/index.php

    Or do you have something bad to say about this? This is not something that is made up. I know of one of the signers.

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 03, 2010 @ 08:18PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Jonathan - you said: "In fact over 20,000 Meteorologist with PHDs, signed a petition stating this scam." That is clearly NOT what your link said (31,486 scientists, and it does not define scientist, including 9,029 with PhDs). It says nothing about what any of their fields of study are, or whether they are even active in their field. I randomly googled one of the PhD names, and the signer was a retired ciliatologist (someone who studies ciliated protozoans, a type of single-celled animal) who is now 84 years old.

      An more interesting recent survey (not a petition) has determined that 97% of actively publishing, peer-reviewed climatologists believe that anthropogenic global climate change is happening now:

      http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

    • Reply to thread
  • Jonathan M
    Jan 03, 2010 @ 11:13PM PT
    Jonathan M

    Now your just being picky! Did you read the requirements for signing the petition? I think you better check this out. Who gives two craps if they are retired; they still know what the facts are. I think you better read more about it. Since this "global warming" is supposed to affect animals too, I don't see a problem with ciliatologist is this petition. I did say Meteorologist, but like this makes a difference! It's still a petition with far more aginst, than those who "believe".

    Of course CLIMATOLOGIST are going to say yes, they are getting money from government grants! Your link only surveys climatologist. You need more scientists instead of just climatologist. It's not just the're speical subject to study.  What causes climate to change? The weather, this is why you need Meteorologist to look over these things too. You need others opions as well.

    Might I remind you that a "consensus" means: A broad general agreement among all members of a group. Look it up in the dictionary. For the true believers and Al Gore, they say consensus means a minority of  scientists who agree with them. It isn't a majority, it never was!

  • Craig Nazor
    Jan 03, 2010 @ 11:40PM PT
    Craig Nazor

    Picky? Ciliologists do not necessarily know the facts of climate science. Do you go to a dentist to get your appendix removed? Not only did you confuse meteorologists with ciliologists, but your number, 20,000, was off by a factor of over 100%!

    The vast majority of researchers DO NOT receive their salaries from grants - the grant money pays for the research costs. Their salaries come from the institutions where they work, and those salaries are dependent on producing published, peer-reviewed research, regardless of the conclusions. You obviously do not understand how the process works.

    You clearly did not read the entire article, and it was only two pages long. The survey included over 3,000 geoscientists. I think you better read more about it.

    The IPCC was established by the UN to come up with the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global climate change, and they have done that. The results are here:

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

    They received the input of thousands of scientists and thousands more peer-reviewed research papers. You are denying the consensus.

  • CTYankee Aeon
    Jan 04, 2010 @ 07:54AM PT
    CTYankee Aeon

    {thumbs in ears} LA LA LA LA LA -- well it appears that *no one* is listening.  Lots of talking, but no listening...

    Jonathan, In case you've not noticed, Craig doesn't respond to facts.  He has a notion of how things are *supposed to work* and no amount of data is going to tarnish his *perfect vision* of scientists that support GW.

    It's 2010... It's time to get past the noise caused by the "useful idiots" In a little while there own 'leaders' will toss them aside.  We, the deniers, the technorati, have got to shake out heads, toss aside childish ways and roll up our sleeves.

    Chop down a tree this year and thumb your nose at the GW alarmists...  Then chop another tree and aim the falling trunk at the wailing and mewling protesters.

    See ya folks!

     

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 04, 2010 @ 07:10PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Ah, CT - one thing hasn't changed in 2010, and that's your propensity for attacking the speaker without discussing the issues.

      I also find it interesting that, after your attacks and cynicism, you claim "We, the deniers... have got to shake our heads, toss aside childish ways and roll up our sleeves." And what do you then propose to do? Attempt to kill the opposition through cutting down trees.

      Let me know how that goes!

       

       

    • Reply to thread
  • Jonathan M
    Jan 04, 2010 @ 09:08AM PT
    Jonathan M

    Hell yes I'm denying the consensus! Cause its not an overwheling amount that agree. Until that happens I don't agree with me driving my car to town for stuff we need like food. Think of this way most will agree that a cloud develops when most warm air comes in contact with colder dier air. Or do you need a lesson on this too! Not some who agree! 

    Once again your not reading what I wrote, I said OVER 20,000, or do you need to go back to math class and know what the word "over" means! Over can mean any number higher than 20,000. It has been a good while since I checked the site last.

    How do you know that Ciliologists do not necessarily know the facts of climate science. They can do whatever they want! You can't limit there knowledge! I'm sure they studied earth science too. If they choose to study the enviorment, more power to them!

    Where do you get the idea that I confuse meteorologists with ciliologists, I didn't say that! I'm sure there is more meteorologists than ciliologists is this petition. Your putting words in my mouth I didn't say!

    • Jonathan M
      Jan 04, 2010 @ 09:08AM PT
      Jonathan M

      Wow only 3,000 geoscientists, I'm convinced now!!! NOT!!

      I all know is that, yes the earth has warmed in the past, I agree!  But when say that CO2 is at the head of the table and nothing else is considered thats where I say thats BS!

      Look at the PDO and AMO, they are coming out of a warm phase, we'll so are we! It has shown that when these values in the past went warm, the ice melts and the earth warmed a little bit. There are pictures to prove it! You'll see in the next 10 years when the ice increases back to were it was at the end of the last cool cycle, and the temperature continues to go down, contray to the IPCC forecast. Of course they are more things of this nature to consider. So instead of going by tree rings or any other crap, look at these values!!

      Listen, I like the fact that you stand for what you beleive in, but look around. There is record shattering cold. Look it up! You can't say temperatures are rising and not have an effect on local condiditions.

      Why is the Citrus industry in jeperdoy in the coming weeks. I thought warming was supposed to do this! Hell, warming and CO2 is good for the plants and lots of other things. They are going to absorb as much CO2 as they need, you can't put a limit on this. You don't give your cat a limited amount of water and food, they'll eat what they want! You think you know everything about whats going on. I don't agree of spending billions of dollars on something thats not fully understood.

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 04, 2010 @ 11:09PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      You said: "over 20,000 Meteorologist with PhDs." The petition did not include 20,000 meteorologists, and it did not include 20,000 people with PhDs. So did your "over" mean "over 20,000 people with PhDs?" Obviously not. Did it mean "over 20,000 meteorologists?" Nope. It apparently meant "over 20,000 scientists," a word that did not even appear in the sentence. I am not a mind reader.

      Let's look more closely at this petition. The largest group of petition signers have a Bachelor of Science ("or equivalent academic degrees," whatever that means) - there are 12,714 of them. The signers also include 2,586 MDs and DVMs (veterinarians). In fact, there are only 3,069 signers that would be considered true earth scientists. The petition includes only 39 climatologists. Interestingly, it includes 9,834 engineers, electrical engineers, and metallurgists, who are the scientists whose jobs are most likely to be affected by strong action to counter anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC). It included no paleontologists. It is impossible to tell if the petitioners are scientists active in their fields, doing pure or applied research, or working for a company that would show a clear conflict of interest. The veracity of the petitioners' credentials is checked by volunteers. The petition is still being circulated in order to gain as many signatures as possible.

      The survey I linked to was a survey of 3,146 earth scientists with advanced degrees who produce primarily pure research. Of those, 90% believe that mean global temperatures have risen when compared with pre-1800's levels. 82% believe that human activity is a significant cause of global temperature increases. The report states: "In general, as the level of active research and specialization in climate science increases, so does agreement with the two primary questions." When it comes to active climatologists (77), the agreement level is better than 96%.

      Your statement about CO2 and plants is not correct:

      http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11655-climate-myths-higher-co2-levels-will-boost-plant-growth-and-food-production.html

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 04, 2010 @ 11:10PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Science is a process. Nothing will ever be scientifically "completely understood." Nuclear interactions are not fully understood, and yet we produce nuclear energy. Aerodynamics is not fully understood, yet our airplanes fly. We have very little idea why music affects people in an emotional way, yet musicians continue to write beautiful music. We don't have to meet your standards of "fully understood" to know that anthropogenic global climate change is a problem that needs to be addressed.

    • Jonathan M
      Jan 05, 2010 @ 10:22AM PT
      Jonathan M

      Who cares what I said! Look for yourself that there are over 20,000 "scientist", does that sound better?! who agree that it is a scam!! What your perfect and don't make mistakes???

      Put it this way, your not a scientist, but that wouldn't stop you from signing a petition in support of global warming, would it?

      If people know the facts and know that its not AGW, and have a degree. Whats the difference?!

      There are all kinds of engineers, they have to know some short of phyics and science. And if they know facts about it, that shouldn't stop them. Your saying that the people who sign has to be people involed in the field itself. That's not right, your limiting peoples knowledge. How do you know what they know??

    • Craig Nazor
      Jan 05, 2010 @ 11:21PM PT
      Craig Nazor

      Well, if you don't care what you said, why should anyone else?

      The fact that I am not a scientist would stop me from signing a petition that assumed that I was a scientist.

      I have no way to be certain that all the people who signed that petition "know the facts."

      As far as I know, I possess no powers to "limit peoples knowledge." In America, anyone can sign any petition that they want to. And no, I have no idea what the petition signers know or don't know. That's my point.

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  • Jonathan M
    Jan 04, 2010 @ 09:39AM PT
    Jonathan M

    And yes CTYankee made a vary good point!!

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